Is the Random Walk on AMDB over?

Before THE STAR write up a fortnight ago, the rumble for AMDB began. 10 trading days ago, it hurled sellers aside and shot up to a high of an intra-day high 45 sen from a an intra-day low of36 sen. It hogged the volume index for days. The last 5 days was a different story altogether. Volume went down and so did price. So, was it a churn by syndicates that brought the price up?

Or was it just random walk?

AMBD was a darling before First Iraqi War and was so as well when the market recovered after that. It was in the doldrums for a long time hibernating at 15 sen. Then with the beginning of the bull in November 2006, it went up.

Let us trace the movement of AMDB before the big push up . On 8 June AMDB was at the 30 sen level. On 22 June it went up 7 sen to 37 sen on a volume of 61 million shares and by 25 June, it was at 45 sen on the back of 58 million shares. That is a gain of 15 sen. That is a clean 50 sen profit for the taking.

Now, let us see the price reversal beginning 26 June 2007. It lost 3 sen to 42 sen on a reduced volume of 21 million shares. By 27 th June, it was down a sen to 41 sen on a volume of 20 million shares. It held steady on 28 June at 41 sen on a volume of 8 million shares. By Friday, 29 Jun it was at 38 sen, a fall of 3 sen on a volume of 13 million shares. Effectively it has gained 8 sen. Will it go down in price again on Monday, 2nd July?

It it does, then the whole thing was a shadow play - a situational churn up before the expected property play. For the moment, what can one say except that the market raiders were long gone!

Heartsong.