Blog Closure

Well, day is done for this blog. It has reached 200 postings. So a new blog has been opened to track Bursa. It is called Stock Smart and is accessible at

http://stocksmart0203.blogspot.com/.

As you would probably have enjoyed Magic Moments, I hope you will continue to follow my stock market rantings in the new blog.

So happy reading and may God bless all of us.

Heartsong

Lock in your Profits

And the bargain hunters did come in at the last hour. The CI was better at the close, losing 10.1 points to 1273.52. As prices rose, many sold into strength. Profit taking soon took its toll of some situation counters especially JAKS which lost 2 sen to 90 sen. Volume was 1.2 billion shares valued at 1.6 billion ringgits. Not much breadth as much we would like to have. There were 480 gainers and 365 losers.

Gainers were Cepco with 68 sen; PPerdana gaining a whopping 60 sen, SAAG tacking on 55 sen and DFZ adding 35 sen. Commerz, JTInter, PetGas and Tanjong all lost 30 sen each. So, it is clear some of these brought down the CI.

Gaming stocks Genting(RM7.20) and BJ Sports Toto(RM5.05) led the portfolio; adding 15 sen and 5 sen respectively.Welli added 3 sen to RM1.05 while RCE added a sen to 81.5 sen. Metronic dopped half a sen to 16 sen while JAKS lost 2 sen. Resorts also gave up 4 sen to RM3.76.

Next week will be a challenging week. Will Bursa move up heavenward again? Hope so. In commemoration of 50 years of Merdeka, investors should be given the chance to rejoice too.

Dow Jones is in uncertain waters again. But I hope the turbulence will be confined to US shores, this time around as I believe the impending issues are no longer on the financial system but more on the economy.

Heartsong

On Eggs Again

As I predicted, Bursa took a rest, losing 16.8 points at the lunch break. The CI closed at 1266.84 points.Losers beat up gainers 659 to 137. Volume was not too encouraging at 510.5 million shares worth 780 million ringgits. Gainers were SAAG adding 50 sen, PPerdana notching up 24 sen; UBB back from the dead with a 24 sen rise and WCT which gained 20 sen. Losers were JInter which gave up 30 sen,BAT losing 25 sen and IJM dropping off 25 sen.

The portfolio saw mostly falls but for Genting which put on 15 sen to RM7.40. Resorts dropped 10 sen to RM3.70; RCE dropped a sen to 79 sen while JAKS, the market leader lost 0.5 sen to 92 sen. BJ Sports Toto lost 2 sen to RM4.98. Welli lost 2 sen to RM1.00 while Metronic lost 0.5 sen to 16 sen.

There may be some bargain hunting in the afternoon and prices might be better. So CI should be in higher territory.

Heartsong

Bursa on the Roll


Well this is the second day of gains for the Bursa. It is also the third day of gains this week; counting in Monday which brought back 51 points to the CI. It is certainly on a roll now that the sub-prime roil has been contained somewhat. CI moved to 1233.62 up another confident-boosting 28.23 points. Gainers conked out losers 771 to 173. Volume moved up to 2.4 billion shares worth RM2.57 billion. Market has reach a good breadth.

Gainers were IOIProp which took in a hefty RM1.10; Bursa which chalked up 65 sen while Commerce wrestled back 50 sen. Meanwhile, BAT added 25 sen. Losers lost little. CIMA lost 15 sen;Delloyd 11 sen and Mamee 10 sen.

The portolio was good as JAKS leaped forward to 92.5 sen adding 8.5 sen. I believe they won the court case against PUAS and SPLASH. If they did, then our courts are above politics and respect the sanctity of contracts. BJ Sports Toto, as expected jumped back to the RM5.00 level, adding 18 sen. Resorts moved steadily to RM3.80 and I foresee a big bang in a matter of days if Dow is good. Strangely Genting was unchanged at RM9.25. A great buy if you have cash. RCE went up to 80.5 sen adding 2 sen. Metronic was half a sen better at 16.5 sen. Welli, in spite of good volume stayed at its overnight level of RM1.02.

I believe Bursa will rest tomorrow. So CI will move up marginally as profit takers take down the speculative stocks and second liners. It may also go red if Dow goes down tonight.

Heartsong

Showing a bit, arent'we?

So when there is not much influence from Wall Street, we strut around. Showing a bit, aren't we?

Anyway, after a hesitant start, Bursa went its own way as I forecasted. With local news such as Ranhill hitting oil and IOIProp making abundant profit, CI moved confidently to 1255.39, up 23.91 points. Volume was very much better at 1.01 billion worth 1.3 billion ringgits. Gainers ran ahead of losers 847 to 106. Gainers were Lion Diversified with an 80 sen gain followed by Tanjong which chalked up 50 sen, IJM which tacked onn 50 sen and Naim which posted 50 sen as well. Losers were MPI losing 25 sen and IOIProp losing 20 sen.

The shadow portfolio followed the main trend. Genting added 10 sen to RM7.35;Resorts tacked on 6 sen to RM3.70 BJ Sports Toto put on 2 sen to RM4.82. JAKS meanwhile added 7.5 sen to 84.5 sen while RCE Cap moved up to 78.5 sen, adding 4.5 sen. Welli also did well moving up 7.5 sen to RM1.02. Finally, Metronic remained unchanged at 16 sen.

So what would be in store for tomorrow? I think market has even out its loss yesterday. Bursa is now back at the starting block. If there are no more dramatic bearish news from Wall Street, Bursa should recover lost ground and move ahead. I do not foresee a brisk upward movement but more a leisurely stroll up the index.

Heartsong

Is Welli actually Hadhari Cattle Industry ?

As I reflect upon the statements made by Dr. Rashid Tang Abdullah of Welli and Hadhari Cattle since May, I cannot but be amused to think he was talking about Welli and Hadhari as if they are synonymous-the same company. Maybe it is de jure. In his mind's mind, Rashid knows that they are ONE or about to become one. On its own, Welli is a big fat nada ZERO! Directionless-going no where and worse of all-prospectless. With Hadhari as lead rider , it is a strong bull and big things are for the taking-the world Halal hub in its vision. Something they are already smack right in it and to boot, with the blessings of the Malayian leadership. A new reality dawns for Welli as it will takes on the guise of Hadhari in its steps.

Undoubtedly, it is veering towards that. Hadhari is helping the new owners of Welli by buying off another minority seller, a chunky 19% to help strengthen their stranglehold on management.

The collection of Welli shares that started just before the sub-prime dam burst, is evidential that something is in the air for Welli. Perhaps an announcement that may put Welli back on the investors' radar. Of, course it was not to be as every one ran for cover when the sub-prime holocaust hit. But confidence did not ebb even though Welli hit pay dirt at 87 sen. It then rose as high as RM1.20 and then it settled down to above RM1.00. Today it is floating at the 95 sen level. The collection however continues.

Lots of 50-100 are quite common trade in spite of the bearish market. The only possible news on the horizon is the release of their 2006 Annual Report and possibly that of a first quarterly report for the current year. Will the quarterly report provide something profitably fresh for the mind of the investor to seize upon?

Or is it something bigger looming on the horizon as the dusts settles in Mongolia and Malaysia? Time will tell.

Heartsong

The Bulls May be Off to Bali....

Dow was ambivalent. US Treasury bills yields have risen. The Feds have injected more money into the market to alleviate the tight fund situation for bill buying. Flight from money-backed securities into Treasury bonds continues. More are of the opinion that the Feds will not cut the rate on September 18 as selling pressure ebbs on Wall Street and there is less fear all round on the sub-prime. Oil prices are trending downwards as Hurricane Dean loses its sting.

Meanwhile, in the east, China increases its interest rate and allowed for the first time for individuals from mainland China to buy shares off Hong Kong. The early furor has somewhat died down but I expect demand will go up once the mainland Chinese investors gets savvy enough to trade in HK shares.

The Japanese yen continues to trade higher especially against the NZ$ and the Aussie$ as the carrying trade unwinds. As long as this continues, yen will move forward. Many are speculating that the BOJ will not increase interest rate for the time being.

Back home, market closed 1% lower yesterday, brought down particularly by the selling down of Genting which has been grossly oversold and should bounce back. If at all, the market can come back on its own, it will be led by the tandem leadership of the Genting-Resort pair. External help can come in the form of a coordinated push by Value Cap and its GLC sister funds. If the move can counter foreign fund selling, we should be back on course for a rally before the September 8 Budget. If not, this is one year where we are denied that bullish phase.

My reading today before the market opens: Lackadaisical trading pattern with a downward bias to hold cash and the omnipresent "wait and see" non-committal stance. This will cause low volume trading and sap away excitement sentiments from our market.

The bulls are away in Bali and in exotic places like Aruba. Expect two boring sessions today.

Heartsong

Simply a Case of Indigestion?

CI closed today down 11.53 points to 1231.86. Volume was 1.08 million shares worth 1.37 billion ringgits. Losers whacked gainers by 716 to 202. Gainers were SAAG with a 40 sen headstart gain, IOIProp adding 30 sen; L Daun topping up 29 sen and Kossan collecting 20 sen.

The portfolio showed mostly losses. BJ Sport Toto was the only stock to grip tightly to its overnight price level of RM4.80. The rest flowed down the river particularly Genting which lost a hefty 50 sen to RM7.25. Resorts followed suit losing 12 sen to RM3.64. RCE Capital dropped 5 sen to 74 sen while JAKS slided 5 sen to 76.5 sen. Welli fall through to the bottom of the lake losing 9.5 sen to 94.5 sen. Metronic lost 0.5 sen to 16 sen.

Heartsong

Directionless Again?

Where are we heading? The Dow was in positive territory but influencing Bursa today it did not. We have an overbought situation yesterday when the index outdid itself. Easy come easy go. So today, like the agonizing head above, decision-less and direction-less, sellers appear to trim gains and put the trajectory in a southerly course.

The CI was down at 1241.45 down a minuscule 1.94 points. Losers were expected to outnumber gainers which they did 569 to 215. Volume was low at 584 million shares worth 889 million ringgits. Gainers were second grade blues and those situationals which had big book value in terms of contracts. SAAG was up by 40 sen,BAT;25 sen,Genealy 22 sen and Kossan by 18 sen. Left much to be desired. Looks like the true blues are missing from this list.

Looking at the portfolio, it followed the general trend. Genting was down 10 sen, Resorts dropped 12 sen ;BJ Sports Toto- 2 sen and RCE Cap 3 sen. Welli dropped to 99 1/2 sen losing 4.5 sen while Metronic was unchanged at 16.5 sen. JAKS slided 2 sen to 791/2 sen.

So, nothing great this morning for the portfolio.

Heartsong

Bursa in Your Hands

To many, the afternoon belonged to them. They punt the blue chips in the morning and they were richly rewarded when the market followed through this afternoon. Speculative stocks closed at almost their day's high. What a day - a day dedicated to the Lord in this Year of Jubilee. For those who made the money, it was such a sweet day to remember. To those who sold on Friday and did not buy back, they watched as their opportunity window ebbed away.

Today the market went berserk at the opening bell. Sellers came from everywhere to swamp the market place picking up sellers at will. Prices moved up gradually but firmly. Those playing CWs are now laughing all the way to the bank.

The CI climbed 51.84 points pushing the index to 53.56. Gainers thumped losers 1014 to 55. Volume of stocks traded stood at 1.44 billion worth 2.43 billion ringgits. The super gainers were Digi, Stemlife, Bursa and Genting. Losing were KFC, Engkah and IOIProp.

My shadow stock portfolio followed the trend and benefitted as well. Genting shot up to RM7.75, adding 75 sen. Resorts World was better at RM3.76. BJ Sports Toto increased 22 sen to RM4.80. This is one counter which is a bulwark of a stock. In no time, it will be back to the RM5.00 level.RCE Capital sprinted back to 79 sen, upping 7 1.2 sen while super JAKS hoisted up a couple of notches to reach 81 1/2 sen, up 71/2 sen. Metronic up a sen to 16.5 sen while Welli added 7 sen to RM1.04.

Will all these gains stay put or will they be given back tomorrow or the days following? If Dow moves up vigorously tonight, then another price ramp up is expected tomorrow. If Dow is ambivalent, then there could a marginal increase and then Bursa will have to take its own direction.

Anyway, this a good happy day for many.

Heartsong

A True Blue Ribbon Day

Like leaping tigers, the CI bounced back with vigour to finish off the morning session gaining 42.61 points, pushing the index to 1234.16 points. It was a true blue ribbon day. The financials led the come-back followed by second grade blues with speculatives and situationals running ahead.

909 counters were up compared to 63 down. Volume was at 805 million shares worth 1.23 billion ringgits. Second grade blues lead the gainers. These are Petgas, Muhibbah, UMW and Gamuda gaining from 50 to 65 sen. Losers were KFC and PDZ.

The portfolio performed true to form as well; especially the defensive gaming stocks. Genting upped 45 sen to RM7.45 and Resorts gained 14 sen on news Star Cruises sold 50% of its shares in NCL Corp to an equity fund Apollo Management for US 1 billion bucks and will now focus its business largely in Asia. BJ Sports Toto shot up to RM4.76 topping up 18 sen.

RCE performed incredibly well upping 61/2 sen to 77 sen while super JAKS upped a similar amount to 80.5 sen. Welli added 6 sen to RM1.03 while Metronic was a sen better at 16.5 sen.

Market did extra well at all levels. However, some will come down this evening because of possible profit taking as uncertainties on Wall street make holding stocks risky.

If Wall Street should go sideways tonight, Bursa may be rudderless again and profit taking may set in from the morning bell tomorrow.

Heartsong

The Wall Street Weather Forecast

Last week saw money seeding throughout the world from New York to New Zealand. In Europe, ECB pumped in money to help out financial institutions that have been cash-strapped by the sub-prime imbroglio. US and Australia followed suit. Soon it was Japan and South Korea. More need not be said.

The Fed delayed action left much to be desired and markets world-wide plummeted. By Thursday,Wall Street moved up on short covering. A technical rebound was long overdue. Then the Fed count the symbolic discount rate by 0.5 % and allowed loans for a duration of 30 days and not overnight. With that, fears were allayed and Wall Street shot up initially to 300 points. If not for the intervention of the authorities to prevent speculation, the Dow would have finished up 300 points.

Will there be follow through this coming Monday on Wall Street?

Every one knows sub-prime is not going away soon. Everyone knows unwinding of the yen carry trade will continue perhaps under less pressuring conditions. That another financial institution may be caught in a liquidity bind is not unforeseeable.

But the Feds are ready and on standby stations. Apart from the discount rate cut, they are continuing market operations by putting more money into the system. Their guarantee on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac still stands to ensure the mortgage market continues to perform.

The fed rate is anticipated for a quarter point cut in September. This is seen to be more useful as it will help the mortgagee as well. Also it will allow cheaper funds for M&As to take place. The downside will be inflation worries and the fear that foreign governments might just dump Treasuries. Both will negatively impact economic growth.

Hurricane Dean's movement across the east coast of US and Mexico has pushed oil prices up. However, the sub-prime may cause many companies not to expand as planned and this could put a cap on oil requirements.

The comfort now is you have the central banks all working to restore their financial systems. The Fed is on standby and ready to act. There will be worries but it will be contained. As long as the majority perceives that the worse is over, the market can then start back on its journey towards the 14000 level.

Asian market should go up in reaction to the recovery in US and Europe.

We shall see how the Dow perform tomorrow night.

Heartsong

Magic Moments Revisited

What a tumultuous day!

From a free-falling market losing 60 points at one time, the bursa came to it senses at the last hour and losses were reduced drastically. I guess all the forced selling was completed by 2.50 pm. The CI closed at 1191.55 losing only 16.06 points. There must have been smiles and sighs of relief at all trading halls throughout the nation.

Volume was 1.8 billion shares valued at 3.1 billion ringgits. Losers push ahead of gainers 855 to 189. Gainers were KFC which added 45 sen, JOBS which tacked on 40 sen, Puncak which topped itself up by 32 sen and Genting and Resorts which added 25 sen and 24 sen respectively. Losers were Digi down by 90 sen, KLK by 70 sen, MISC by 45 sen and SP Setia by 45 sen.

Portfolio stocks which was beaten to a pulp initially recovered to minimise losses. Gaming giant Genting put on 25 sen to RM7.00 and Resorts flew by 24 sen to RM3.58 on heavy trading volume. BJ Sports Toto finished unchanged at RM4.58 while JAKS finished 3 sen lower at 74 sen. RCE also finished lower at 73 sen losing 2.5 sen. Welli was down 3 sen to 97 sen while Metronic lost a sen to 15 sen.

Today reminds me of the frantic nervousness that bore on the market after the outbreak of the first Gulf War when Saddam Hussein attacked Kuwait as well as the terrible Asian currency meltdown of 1997 suspected to have been started by Soros.

What a great day this is. To be able to experience yet again the sheer anxiety and excitement of a falling market and a good rebound. Bravo! Calls for a round of beer!

Will follow-through come on Monday and will Bursar scale the 1200 level? Anything is possible, by the grace of God.

We will wait for that on Monday.

Heartsong

The Yen Bogeyman

So you think the sub-prime has caused havoc to the market? The yen carrying trade is now doing its part as well. Equities are now being hammered at both ends from New York to Tokyo.

The yen have shot up this morning like a rocket and panic buying to cover yen loans by those unwinding the carrying trade screwed markets world-wide even though Wall Street dropped less than 20 points.

The CI has dropped a massive 59 points at 2.45 pm It was a downright harrowing experience as panic hit the streets. Some stocks are down by almost 20%.

I do not believe any stocks can take this kind of punishment. When will the carnage end?

Heartsong

Bloody Massacre

As expected bargain hunting by some fund managers help lift prices on some blue chips to bring down the loss on the CI. At the close, CI lost 44.21 points to 1207.61. Volume was fair at 1.52 billion worth 3 billion ringgits. Losers wiped out gainers 1066 to 41. Gainers were BAT which added only 25 sen; Asiatic which managed to recover 10 sen after a huge fall yesterday, Hwa Tai which tacked on 8 sen and BHIC which brought in 5 sen. Losers are the who's who on the bursar. Sime Darby lost 75 sen. Muhibbah lost 70 sen as well. Public Bank lost 40 sen while Maybank was lower by 30 sen. Transmile dropped 44 sen and UEM World gave back 30 sen.

The portfolio stocks were squashed into congee and soups. Genting rolled the dice and lost 40 sen to RM6.80,Resorts World lost to player by 28 sen and BJ Sports Toto dwindled by 20 sen. JAKS dropped 6.5 sen to 77 sen while RCE lost 9 sen to 73 sen. Welli was one tough nut maintaining the price level of RM1.01 and RM1.02. I think there is a definite collector all day. Metronic declined by a sen to 16.5 sen.

Most future indexes and European markets are trading in the red now. I expect Dow to go red tonight from the word,''Go."

Heartsong

Burn,Burn, Burn

Like fire and brimstone, from the heavens, it rained doom and gloom on the bursa.

The signs have been given. Dow futures pointed south. Markets from Europe to Asia were maroon in colour. But they played on, frolicking to the price movements. A grab here and a grab there. Unless you are collecting, do not put your fingers into this cauldron of fire.

Taking a cue from Wall Street, market collapsed. The chartists can chart all they want. TA or FA. Every day, a new low; every day new charts. A waste of time,effort and energy trying to put a handle to the market.

CI went down to 1205.58 down a humongous 46.24 points. Gainers was 17 against 1051 losers. Volume was 841 million valued at RM1.5 billion. Losers cut a swath of red ink across the board with speckles of greens.The hardest hit seems to be construction stocks like Gamuda and Muhibbah. Both went down badly; the former by 95 sen and the latter by 70 sen. IJM, another builder went down by 65 sen. Something is not right with Kulim. It fell 64 sen.

Portfolio counter were beaten to a pulp. Genting was hard hit; dropping a huge 45 sen. Resorts dropped 24 sen to RM3.38 and BJ Sports Toto got cut down by 18 sen. RCE lost 3.5 sen to 75.5 sen while JAKS was at 78 sen losing 5.5 sen. Metronic lost a sen to 16.5. Welli was strong, losing only 2 sen to RM1.02. Strong buying noted on this counter.

I believe some bargain hunters will come in to fish for blue chips in the afternoon to reduce the loss o n the CI. Expect situationals like JAKS, KHSB and KPS to move up a bit

Heartsong

Bird Eat Bird World


As portrayed in the photo, it's not only a dog eat dog world, it is also a bird eat bird world and now a man eat man world as the world equity markets slaughter the humans relentlessly.

The European markets was awashed with red ink and so were all Asian markets. How will Dow open tonight? Up, we hope. But aren't we dreaming, wishing and hoping again that the sub-prime and the yen carrying trade will quietly go away?

CI closed down 33.2 points to 1255.17. Volume was fairly good at 1.1 billion shares worth 2.1 billion ringgits. Gainers overcame losers 990 versus 58 only. Only blue chip to shine with only a 10 sen gain was Dutch Lady. An unknown counter called Ingress managed a 3.5 sen gain. Losers galore included Lion Diversified(90 sen); Muhibbah(70sen); UMW(70sen), Stemlife(52 sen) and Kulim(55sen).

The portfolio went to Greenland. Genting went down the hill to RM7.15 losing 40 sen, Resorts World lost 35 sen, BJ Sports Toto reversed gear to lose 12 sen and RCE dropped to 81 sen losing 6 sen. JAKS was down 4.5 sen to 82.5 sen while Metronic was a sen down to 17.5 sen. Welli was at RM1.04;losing 10 sen but buying was strong.

If Dow goes down tonight, there will be more blood-letting. If it gains or lose marginally, there may be some hope that the slide can be arrested. But do not expect market to be active and about. It still has to be be confined to bed for sometime.

Heartsong

O Lord We Need You!


Yes, all of us investors and speculators on Bursa have sinned. They have forgotten You and have heaped praise on Manon. But You are great. You who made the mountains and the oceans. You do mighty wonders, Lord.

We must repent. We must go back to Your Word, The Bible. We pray to you so that this equity market havoc world-wide will end. It has caused trillions to be wiped out. It has caused pain, anguish and fear. We look forward to a divine exchange, trading our fears, sins and hatred for your peace love and kindness. We adore You, we love You and we uphold Your name on high. Amen.

Today Bursa along with all bourses world-wide felt the biting agony and pain of the continuous sub-prime roil. Bursa closed the morning session at 1258.74 with a loss of 29.60 points. Losers overwhelmed gainers 923 to 28. Volume was visibly thin at 553 million shares worth 913 million ringgits. Gainers were unknowns such as Gunung adding 3 sen. The others adding less than 4 sen were Air Asia (3.5 sen)and Shangrila (3 sen). Losers were aplenty. Take your pick. We have a morose Muhibbah here with a 80 sen loss. Then sitting over there as well is poor anemic Asiatic losing 60 sen. Lion Diversified here has lost its guts to give away 55 sen and Stemlife is almost lifeless losing yet another 48 sen.

The portfolio also played follow the leader. Genting dropped down the mountain to RM7.25 sen;losing another 30 sen.Resorts World lost 12 sen at a game of chance to finish at RM3.62. Welli went scuba diving yet again to lose 9 sen to RM1.05. RCE Cap lost 6 sen to 81 sen and JAKS dropped off 5.5 sen to 81.5 sen. BJ Sports Toto gave up 4 sen to RM4.72 while Metronic lost a sen to 17.5 sen.

A real carnage if ever there was one. One of the worst market days to experience. Of pain, horror and anguish.

Looking at the picture above remind us of our Lord who died on the cross to atone for all our sins so that we may find eternal salvation.

Let us pray

Heartsong

Nowhere Market

The afternoon lulled on as stock prices moved down shade by shade. The top sprinter, KPS pulled a fast one which resulted in it falling 13 sen to RM2.84. The effect of ESOS shares being traded tomorrow hit home hard on buyers who chased the shares beyond RM3.00.

CI was up only 0.8 points to 1288.34. Volume continued to be thin at 761 million shares valued at 1.2 billion ringgits. Losers screwed up gainers 457 to 330. Gainers were MIDF which gained 49 sen on news it will be be taken private. ACB gained 28 sen while Lion Diversified added 25 sen. So did BAT. Losers were TaAnn losing 60 sen. POS Holdings which did a stunt; a sleigh of hand deal transfering Transmil at RM12.00 to the new unit caused Transmile to lose 44 sen. Many got conned yesterday by a newspaper item on this. Caveat emptor; so blame no one for your tomfoolery. Chin Teck slid 35 sen and BHIC was eroded of 32 sen.

Portfolio-wise saw Genting adding a paltry 5 sen to RM7.55. BJ Sports Toto and Metronic were overnight at RM4.84 and 18.5 sen. RCE lost a sen to 87 sen and JAKS was also at 87 sen losing 3 sen. Resorts dropped 4 sen to RM3.74 and Welli lost by a similar amount to RM1.1.4.

Not a good trading day as was expected.

I see signs of a fading bull market and the advent of a bearish trend.

Heartsong

The Bear Dance

I am no joy-killer. I do not want to be one. Ever. But signs are the bears are here. They are fox-trotting to the sway of the sub-prime melody. Sub-prime is the top of the pops for more than three weeks now on the world charts from New York to Seoul. Just this morning, it started to move up the charts again after sliding for the last three days because of the new numbers played by the central banks.

One more provider, Aegis Mortgage has filed for bankruptcy and an investor bank is involved as well. From 100 points up, Dow sank to red territory. Asian markets follow suit this morning.

Bursar was happily moving up this morning in a verdant green landscape but by lunch break it has lost 6.2 points bringing the index down further to 1290.24. Morning trade was thin at 383 million shares worth RM1.29 billion ringgits. Losers outran gainers almost 2:1, that is 421 to 274. Gainers were MIDF which added 40 sen and BAT which climbed 25 sen. No big deal for BAT. MPI gained 25 sen as well and MBSB; out of blues came in with a 20 sen gain. Highly suspicious!

Portfolio stocks came in mixed. Genting added a miserable 5 sen to RM7.55. Good support noted. BJ Sports Toto climbed 2 sen while Resorts lost two sen. RCE and JAKS both dropped 1.5 sen each while Welli dropped a sen to RM1.17. Metronic was at its overnight level of 18 .5 sen.

Any hopes for a better afternoon session? By a long shot..........

I still hear the bear swaying to their favourite rhumba,"Sub-Prime Blues got Aegis".

Heartsong

Joyless Ride

Today is one dull day. A joyless ride. Trading is relatively thin at 869 million shares worth 1.49 million ringgits. CI was better in the afternoon finishing at 1296.48 up 8.78 points. Losers still took pole position at 519 against 333 losers. BHIC continue to hog the limelight putting on RM1.99 followed by Transmile which gained 56 sen. MPI added 55 sen and Gamuda tacked on 45 sen. Losers were Stemlife losing 64 sen, TaAn dropping 40 sen and Guthrie losing 25 sen.

The shadow portfolio was mixed. Genting and BJ Sports Toto, RCE and JAKS managed to gain. Genting added 5 sen to RM7.50;BJ Sports Toto; 2 sen to RM4.84; JAKS added 2,5 sen to 90 sen and RCE notched up 2 sen to 88 sen. Metronic and Welli were the losers. Metronic lost 1 sen to 18.5 sen and Welli 3 sen to RM1.18. Resorts World lost 2 sen to RM3.78.

Dull trading day. Most Asian markets are up though. So that will bode well for Bursa. US Futures also did well and so can encourage investors on Wall Street tonight to be quick on the buy.

We await the unfolding drama.

Heartsong

More Defensive than Offensive

A stalemate; that's what we are gonna have with a downward bias. If more bearish news emerged if the afternoon, Bursa will go into a red swamp.

As usual, the positive mind-set pushes the index to more than 13 points in the first 20 minutes. Blue chips like banking stocks were a shade better. Situational stocks like KPS, KHSB and JAKS ran ahead. Then, they played limbo rock. Except for KPS most went down the limbo stick.

Index closed barely one point for the morning session.CI was at 1288.10 up 0.4 points. Gainers lag behind losers 126 to 691. Volume of traded stocks shrank to 428.6 million shares worth 1.57 billion ringgits.

Among gainers were BHIC which upped RM1.75 sen, Transmile gained 46 sen, P Perdana up 42 sen and Tanjong put on 30 sen. Losing were Stemlife lost 74 sen while KLK dropped 30 sen, PPB was also down 30 sen and SunCity slidded 26 sen.

The portfolio played limbo rock too. Genting finished unchanged at RM7.45 while Resorts went down 2 sen to RM3.78. BJ Sports Toto also lost 2 sen to RM4.80. RCE dropped 1.5 sen to 85 sen while JAKS was 1.5 sen down to 86 sen. Metronic also went down a sen to 18.5 sen while Welli was down 5 sen to RM1.1.6. Not much buying of Welli today. I think they know - sudah celik that the timing is not right for a price boosting announcement.

The afternoon is awaited and the chances of a good bull market run scenario is most remote.

Heartsong

More Fires on Monday?

Wall Street reduced losses on Friday because of the blood transfusion exercise into the financial system. News that central banks worldwide are pumping money into their financial systems to allay investors fears also helped. Bears retreated for a while. Will they pounced back on Monday night in New York and paw prices down again?

No one knows for sure. We are not out of the woods yet. But do not expect gung-ho strength buying. Fund managers may come in to buy some blue chips to bottom fish if they feel that the worse is contained. This will only mean that the index will remain put or incrementally better.

If Nikkei and Hang Seng perform well, Asian markets may move up. Expect situationals to sprint particularly KPS,JAKS and KHSB. Second grade blues may also jump. There will be broad based buying. This is the best scenario we can hope for.

If Asian markets play a ''wait and see'' game, the markets will be range-bound with a bias to lower prices. A weakening of the Asian barometers, Hang Seng, Nikkei and FTSE is indicative that the Dow would falter again tomorrow night. Do watch out for the futures, because they are the percussors.

Pray the market holds tomorrow.

Heartsong

Looking for Noah's Ark

Oh what a day! The investors have been put on tenterhooks. They expected the worst and sold their shares by the first twenty minutes and then market started going up again. Then it settled down and went up slightly towards the close. Damage was done. So what can these investors do, if they have sold at a loss. Their only chance is to buy back when the market should fall really badly. That would be like climbing back on Noah's ark. It means Bursa must take another hit A second drubbing will be required on the true blue chips like Maybank, Public Bank,AMMB, TNB, TM, Commerz and secondary blues like the construction and oil and gas stocks. Anything is possible now with this sub-prime and yen carrying trade roiling its vengeance in tandem across the globe.

CI was down to 1287.69,losing 25.7 points. Volume of shares traded was 1.05 billion worth 1.8 billion ringgits. There was 104 counters up and 835 down. among losers were sime which lost 20 sen and EONCap;30 sen. Putrajaya Perdana put on 38 sen, GBH;29 sen and KPS; 13 sen.

Looking at the shadow portfolio,only JAKS and Metronic closed unchanged at 87.5 sen. Genting lost 15 sen to close at RM7.45 while BJ Sports Toto shed 14 sen o RM4.82. Resorts World lost 6 sen while RCE Capital lost 4 sen to 86 sen. Welli closed down 3 sen to RM1.21.

The underlying tone of the market was weak as investors would not want to commit as it was Friday and they were also wary of what will happen to Wall Street in the near term.

Heartsong

Equities Armageddon

By far, the worse cause for market meltdowns globally.

Sub-primes and the yen carrying trade-manifestations of man's greed and the reckless pursuit of systemic weaknesses of the world's financial systems. These excesses have come home and we have to face the music and to swallow bitter medicine. As the world central banks come in to salvage what is left of the dignity of financial institutions, investors world-wide turned panicky and started unloading shares from the word, ''Go.''

Let me just give a general picture of what transpired in Bursa this morning.

The initial reaction was to sell down those stocks that you have made some money. Then you sell those that you would not like to carry some more because of uncertain trading conditions for the next few days. Cash is king and so you convert.

The performance-not really big fall. Some sell-down of blue chips caused the index to fell on the initial hour. Then market stabilised and bargain hunters came in to reduce losses on most counters. The true blues were not too bad. Let us look at some of them at the end of closing day.

True Blues

Maybank lost 40 sen
Commerz lost 40 sen
LPI lost 40 sen
EONCap lost 30 sen
DIGI lost 30 sen
Public Bank lost 20 sen.
Hong Leong Bank lost 15 sen

Second Grade Blues:

KNM lost 22 sen
Sime lost 20 sen
TNB lost 20 sen
Tanjong lost 20 sen
TM lost 15 sen
Proton lost 15 sen
UEM World lost 18 sen
DRBHicom lost 12 sen
YTL lost 40 sen
Gamuda lost 15 sen
MRCB lost 9 sen
Zelan lost 20 sen
Pelikan lost 27 sen
YTL Land lost 11 sen

I expect market to slide perhaps towards losing 30 points as more bad news filter into the market. As today is Friday,expect more selling in the last hour or so.

The market appears weak though situational water-play counters have once again run ahead in anticipation of a recovery this Monday. A pre-matured indicator?

The determinant factor will be how Dow Jones fare tonight. If Dow makes a small loss or a small gain, its effects on world market will be neutral. Then there will be hope for Bursa. Otherwise it will be the same fate that we will face as the day dawns on 13 August 2007.

PS: Market closed down 25.7 points to 1287.69 today.

Heartsong

Timing May Be Wrong Again

This morning break-out for Welli was certainly telling by the volume done and the number of block deals.

Roughly, we see:

• Two huge blocks of 1000 lot sizes
• One block of 600 lot size
• Five blocks of 500 lot size
• Eight blocks of 400 lot size
• Twenty blocks of 300 lot size
• Sixty blocks of 200 lots
• One hundred and Eighty-Five blocks of 100 lot size

That means big buyers particularly those in the know are collecting Welli dirt cheap.

Tomorrow is Friday and they have bought their fill. So they will allow Welli to fell tomorrow since Dow Jones will definitely be down and Friday is no buyers' day.

I really do not know whether Rashid Tang has any share-price boosting corporate news to announce urgently tomorrow. If they have and want too, it certainly will be the worst time to do so.

Meanwhile enjoy the loveliness of Nicole Kidman in that beautiful gown..........

Heartsong

No More False Start, Please

It was well-staged. Spread a rumour that a Chinese machinery company is buying a chunk of Welli stocks at RM4.00, and the market freaked out. The stock was chased up until RM3.20 on heavy volume buying with obviously churns by helpful syndicates. When queried by SC, the company played down the rumour saying they were uncertain who among the shareholders were selling. The stock plummeted to RM2.00 and floated around that price.

However, when the company was about to issue their 2006 Annual report and First Quarterly Report 2007, they were requested to refrain from releasing the reports because of dubious receivables. The shares of Welli fell to RM1.20 level.

Then news of the Hadhari Cattle Industry buying over 19% of Welli stocks hit the market. The shares was once more feverishly chased up to RM1.91. It settled at the RM1.70 level. The latest news of Welli buying over Dashi Chifeng shares in China as well as signing an agreement with the Inner Mongolian authorities to participate in gold mining, new town development and construction of tolled road businesses did not move the counter.

Slowly by attrition bargain hunting, the shares were eroded to the RM1.20 level. Then the sub-prime imbroglio hit world markets for 9 days. Welli went down to 99 sen.

Today, despite a sliding market. Welli held its own to tack on 12 sen to RM1.24 on heavy volume. Is something in the works? Some good news is definitely going to be announced very soon and those in the know are busy collecting them yesterday and today.

Will Welli break out and never look back? I hope so.

Heartsong

On the Afternoon Watch or Sitting Ducks?

The morning showed some buying strength. A follow through is needed to bring more buyers into the market. This will allow other pale blues with good PERs to attract buying interest and the broader market to be further strengthened.

Afternoon was a washout. Most stocks slided, some tumbled. At the end of trading day, index was up 6.2 points to 1313.39. Losers thumped gainers 493 to 427. Volume of shares was 1.2 billion valued at RM1.5 billion. Gainers were as usual Muhibbah, Tongher, Digi, IOIProp, Gamuda and Pelikan with gains ranging from 25-60 sen. Losers were F&N,LPI and Nestle; all losing 20 sen each.

Portfolio performed mixed because of late sell-down.

Only Welli survived with a 12 sen gain to RM1.24. Volume is high. The game will begin soon.

Genting(RM7.60); BJ Sports Toto (RM4.96)and Metronic (19.5 sen)managed to hold on to their overnight levels.

RCE lost 0.5 sen to 90 sen while JAKS limboed down the stick to 87.5 sen,losing 3 sen

Tomorrow is anybody's guess. If Dow holds, market may be incrementally good. If Dow get snowed down again, its thumbs down and fall we will...........

Time for a beer with Homer....

Heartsong