Monday, August 6, 2007

Expect one of a hellish roller-coaster ride today.


Obvious reaction of the panicky and unschooled in the mechanics of the stock markets-dump shares and buy back again when it falls. Good if you have a re-entry strategy;better if your can rightly time the market.

Today's mood will be sombre. I expect panic selling from the word "Go!" especially from those who had enough and would not want to get their fingers burnt.

If you are saddled with many trading stocks, perhaps it is wise to let go of some. Follow the dictum, "win some and lose some". When market stabilized, bargain in at a cheaper price. Do not chase because no one know what weapons will be unleashed by Wall Street tonight.

If the market fell in reaction to the Bears Stearns conference call, then very likely it will rebound tonight. If more dirt is coming out of the sub-prime hedge fund imbroglio, then expect Dow to go south some more.

Since the world economies continue to be robust and US contribution to it is only 20% while the rest are fetching something between 6 to 10% annual growth rate, we should allay our fears that the world is not heading towards a depression.

There is no bubble as the transformation of the communist bloc into free economies have gobbled up a lot of world commodities. US companies which are global are reaping from this phenomena and this is showing well on their bottom-line. So the world is not in a recession mode yet. The money made on the world bourses are real.

Back home, the only concern is unemployment. Some inflation, perhaps but otherwise it's fair weather. With the pump-priming efforts of the government in the 9MP particularly the 2H of 2007, there should be no cause for alarm that our markets will go into an extended bear phase.

I expect the bulls to be back once the US can see its way out of the current sub-prime milieu.

Heartsong


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