Monday, June 11, 2007

First Quarter Impressions


OSK Investment Research in THE STAR on 9 June 2007 made the following analysis and impressions based on the financial results of the first quarter of 2007. I have abridged some of them here for our attention. I have also added my comments and predictions. These are in italics.

They are generally bullish on oil and gas, plantation and construction. To the perceptive eye, these are obvious.

Let us look at the sectors that they focused.

Banking:

Performance was mixed. However they are still positive of Public Bank,Hong Leong Bank and possibly Maybank.

Building Materials:

Most companies met their forecasted performance. With the roll-out of the 9th Malaysia Plan projects, they can only get better.

Conglomerates:

They were happy with Faber. MMC has yet to see the contribution of Malakoff at this stage. My comment is to watch out for MRCB especially with this market talk of EPF buying into Equine through MRCB. Equine has gone up 300% since April.

Construction:

Performed below par but no panic situation as yet. The early roll-out of 9thMP projects should provide the impetus for market action.

Casino and Number Forcast

Resorts did well and so did Genting, BJ Toto, Tanjong and Magnum. Star Cruise should contribute more in H2 when tourists arrive from the northern hemisphere as the cold months begin to set in. Genting is benefiting from good oil palm prices from Asiatic. Also Visit Malaysia Year will help Genting and Resorts World to achieve better results in the ensuing quarters of 2007. Good buy if you intend to go into this defensive counters particularly super dividend provider, BJ Toto, and robust Genting and Resorts World.

Motor :

Bad. do not touch it with even a long pole.

Plantation:

Anybody's guess. With the trending up of oil palm prices to RM2,500 per tonne, plantation stocks are good buys. Buy those with small caps. Remember oil palm prices may just peaked off at year's end.

Power:

Both YTL and TNB brought in better than forecasted results though there are non-operating revenue contribution on both companies' accounts. TNB also benefited from the tariff hike.

Oil and Gas:

Star performers. Small caps did better than the large caps. Dialog and KNM brought in lower than expected results though the next quarters could see lumpy earnings coming into play.

Property:

Results of most companies within expectations. Recommend selective stocks involved in higher end market and in IDR region. Plenitude is a good stock to watch as it operates in the SJER and will benefit when the monorail comes on steam.

Telcos:

Digi outperformed but MAXIS was within expectations with revenue coming from its Indian operations. TM is worrisome as it starts to lose more revenue from fixed lines.

Timber:

Results are acceptable. The summertime Japanese construction market will create demand and push prices up.

Water:

Slow start. Taliworks performed below par. If and when news of the development of the WTP becomes clearer, expect this sector to move forward. Watch out for the Puncak Niaga, KPS and KHSB counters.


Heartsong



1 comment:

Unknown said...

Here is some info. about Timber Investments

http://www.whiskeyandgunpowder.com/Report/TimberStockReport.html